Took my walk after reading the morning's news. Two reports have convinced me that:
1. Oil production peaked in 2005-2007.
2. The current economic crises, although mostly financial, was also partly caused by the increase in petroleum prices in the summer of 2008.
3. Peak Oil is here. We now start the downward slide; everything will change now.
4. Look for lots more walking going on.
One report was from the London Guardian (who once put me on their website) and the other was from Le Monde in France.
I've been watching this hypothesis for ten years. I've been hesitant about this issue (because everything seems Mark Twainish in the sensationalism of "stories about my death of been greatly exaggerated"). But these two reports have me reasonably convinced. I don't think it is hawkish propaganda because it was picked up by the European press. If the military wanted to spread some mass misinformation they would use their normal channels. The Joint Chiefs would be on CNN and other networks talking about mushroom clouds and all that other rot (although that may happen when we decide to invade Iran).
These reports are from the subterranean military and energy intelligentsia who have finally been unearthed by a much more enlightened press corps than what we have here in the States.
Consequences of these reports? The Last Man Standing scenario popularized by Richard Heinberg.
1. We have Iran surrounded right now. Client States in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Look for more flexing of American Military Might within the region. I think there will be more war in the region. Pakistan is the symptom and not the problem. America wants to secure all the oil within the Middle East. A lack luster peace movement makes this possible.
2. A double dip in the economy. Look for a second recession in November (after the election).
3. Of course, there will be more drilling for oil. ANWR will be drilled (if not now, certainly within the next twenty years). Obama's announcement of more off shore drilling is no surprise. Scarcity means profits! We won't move on to a post carbon economy until every drop has been mined.
4. An opportunity for real change! This could mean an end to the American Empire; real investment in Green Energy; a thriving local economy and real conservation. All crises have opportunities: We are in the midst of one now.
5. Oil will not go down without a fight. Look for greater efficiency in products before a vast investment in renewables occur. Oil is just too profitable.
6. Tar Sands! Look for Canada to be dug up.
7. All politics for the next twenty years will be related to propping up the carbon industry. In fact, that has already started. Why else go to war so much in the Middle East?
8. Climate Change legislation is dead.
How bad will it get? That is anybody's guess. I'd say that things fall apart slowly. It takes years for a house to weather and fall down but some of the supporting beams have rotted. We still have time to build a new house before the old one rots. Better get to work!